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Corvinul Hunedoara vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti — Liga II 2018

Corvinul Hunedoara
Corvinul Hunedoara
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
3/21/2026Liga IILiga II · Championship Group - 1Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Corvinul Hunedoara45%
×Draw27%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corvinul Hunedoara
1.42
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.05

Corvinul Hunedoara creates 35% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 72 away

creates per match

Corvinul Hunedoara
1.66
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.46

allows per match

Corvinul Hunedoara
0.64
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.17

finishing

Corvinul Hunedoara+0.00on par
CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corvinul Hunedoara ↓

CSA Steaua Bucureşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Corvinul Hunedoara or draw
72%
Corvinul Hunedoara or CSA Steaua Bucureşti
73%
Draw or CSA Steaua Bucureşti
55%

Winning margin

Corvinul Hunedoara wins by 2+
22%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Corvinul Hunedoara 1+ goals
76%
Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals
41%
Corvinul Hunedoara 3+ goals
17%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals
65%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals
28%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Corvinul Hunedoara (draw refunded)
62%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corvinul Hunedoara at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.64 · 44 matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corvinul Hunedoara attack 1.66 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.46 + Corvinul Hunedoara defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Corvinul Hunedoara scores more
45%
level
27%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more
28%

Corvinul Hunedoara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Corvinul Hunedoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Corvinul Hunedoara 1 – 0 CSA Steaua Bucureşti

Corvinul Hunedoara beat CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1-0 in Liga II on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Corvinul 1921 Hunedoara in Hunedoara.