Coruxo 0–0 Unionistas de Salamanca: Result & Stats

Coruxo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Unionistas de Salamanca

2/14/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Campo do Vao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Coruxo53%

×Draw27%

Unionistas de Salamanca20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoruxoExpected goals in this matchUnionistas de Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.77

Coruxo

1.43

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.77

Coruxo creates 86% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 106 away

1.59

creates per match

0.91

0.63

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Coruxo

1.59

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.91

allows per match

Coruxo

0.63

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coruxo+0.00on par

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coruxo ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Coruxo or draw

80%

Coruxo or Unionistas de Salamanca

73%

Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca

47%

Winning margin

Coruxo wins by 2+

26%

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Coruxo 1+ goals

76%

Coruxo 2+ goals

42%

Coruxo 3+ goals

17%

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

54%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

18%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Coruxo (draw refunded)

72%

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coruxo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coruxo attack 1.59 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Coruxo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Coruxo scores more

53%

level

27%

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

20%

Coruxo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Coruxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

Mandi← Lama

67'

José Rivera← Diego Silva

72'

Pepe Carmona← Manu Viana

82'

Diego Hernández← Aythami Perera

83'

Álex Rey← Héctor Nespral

86'

Álex Ares← Aarón Piñán

86'

Pedro Vázquez← Mateo Míguez

88'

Mandi

88'

Mandi

Coruxo

Unionistas

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Míchel Alonso

67'▲José Rivera←▼Diego Silva

86'▲Álex Ares←▼Aarón Piñán

86'▲Pedro Vázquez←▼Mateo Míguez

Coruxo substitutes

RiveraAresVázquezAmigoYebraLópezManuSalgueiro

Manager: Hernán Pérez

60'▲Mandi←▼Lama

72'▲Pepe Carmona←▼Manu Viana

82'▲Diego Hernández←▼Aythami Perera

83'▲Álex Rey←▼Héctor Nespral

Unionistas de Salamanca substitutes

MandiCarmonaHernándezReyGarayNavaMontesMedinaGarcía