Coruxo 2–0 SS Reyes: Result & Stats

Coruxo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SS Reyes

1/5/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 19Campo do Vao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Coruxo54%

×Draw26%

SS Reyes20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoruxoExpected goals in this matchSS Reyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.78

Coruxo

1.48

SS Reyes

0.78

Coruxo creates 90% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 53 away

1.59

creates per match

0.92

0.63

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Coruxo

1.59

SS Reyes

0.92

allows per match

Coruxo

0.63

SS Reyes

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coruxo+0.00on par

SS Reyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coruxo ↓

SS Reyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Coruxo or draw

80%

Coruxo or SS Reyes

74%

Draw or SS Reyes

46%

Winning margin

Coruxo wins by 2+

28%

SS Reyes wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Coruxo 1+ goals

77%

Coruxo 2+ goals

43%

Coruxo 3+ goals

19%

SS Reyes 1+ goals

54%

SS Reyes 2+ goals

18%

SS Reyes 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Coruxo (draw refunded)

73%

SS Reyes (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coruxo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

SS Reyes away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.36 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coruxo attack 1.59 + SS Reyes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.48

SS Reyes attack 0.92 + Coruxo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Coruxo scores more

54%

level

26%

SS Reyes scores more

20%

Coruxo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Coruxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff