Coruxo 2–2 Real Oviedo II: Result & Stats

Coruxo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Real Oviedo II

B. Marchante 89'

X. Sola 42'

D. Menendez 74'

P. Agudin 51'

9/28/2025

League #875 · Group 1 - 4Campo do Vao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Coruxo44%

×Draw29%

Real Oviedo II27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoruxoExpected goals in this matchReal Oviedo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.89

Coruxo

1.23

Real Oviedo II

0.89

Coruxo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

1.22

creates per match

0.83

0.94

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Coruxo

1.22

Real Oviedo II

0.83

allows per match

Coruxo

0.94

Real Oviedo II

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coruxo+0.00on par

Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coruxo ↓

Real Oviedo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Coruxo or draw

73%

Coruxo or Real Oviedo II

71%

Draw or Real Oviedo II

56%

Winning margin

Coruxo wins by 2+

20%

Real Oviedo II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Coruxo 1+ goals

71%

Coruxo 2+ goals

35%

Coruxo 3+ goals

13%

Real Oviedo II 1+ goals

59%

Real Oviedo II 2+ goals

22%

Real Oviedo II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Coruxo (draw refunded)

62%

Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coruxo at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coruxo attack 1.22 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Real Oviedo II attack 0.83 + Coruxo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Coruxo scores more

44%

level

29%

Real Oviedo II scores more

27%

Coruxo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Coruxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

X. Sola

51'

P. Agudin

74'

D. Menendez

89'

B. Marchante

89'

Espi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff