Coruxo 0–0 Pontevedra: Result & Stats

Coruxo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pontevedra

1/12/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Campo do Vao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Coruxo53%

×Draw27%

Pontevedra21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoruxoExpected goals in this matchPontevedra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.81

Coruxo

1.47

Pontevedra

0.81

Coruxo creates 81% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 65 away

1.59

creates per match

1.00

0.63

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Coruxo

1.59

Pontevedra

1.00

allows per match

Coruxo

0.63

Pontevedra

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coruxo+0.00on par

Pontevedra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coruxo ↓

Pontevedra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Coruxo or draw

79%

Coruxo or Pontevedra

73%

Draw or Pontevedra

47%

Winning margin

Coruxo wins by 2+

27%

Pontevedra wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Coruxo 1+ goals

77%

Coruxo 2+ goals

43%

Coruxo 3+ goals

18%

Pontevedra 1+ goals

56%

Pontevedra 2+ goals

19%

Pontevedra 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Coruxo (draw refunded)

72%

Pontevedra (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coruxo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Pontevedra away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coruxo attack 1.59 + Pontevedra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Pontevedra attack 1.00 + Coruxo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Coruxo scores more

53%

level

27%

Pontevedra scores more

21%

Coruxo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Coruxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

Jacobo Trigo← Diego Silva

65'

Campillo← Álvaro Bustos

71'

Javi Pazos← Pedro Vázquez

72'

77'

82'

85'

Coruxo

Pontevedra

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Míchel Alonso

61'▲Jacobo Trigo←▼Diego Silva

72'▲Aitor Aspas←▼Barril

85'▲Kevin Mendoza←▼Manu

Coruxo substitutes

TrigoAspasMendozaSyllaVilaFuentesBrea

Manager: Carlos Pouso

65'▲Campillo←▼Álvaro Bustos

71'▲Javi Pazos←▼Pedro Vázquez

82'▲Naveira←▼U. Adighibe

Pontevedra substitutes

CampilloPazosNaveiraJaénDizBuesoFigueroa

Match Recap: Coruxo vs Pontevedra

Coruxo and Pontevedra drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 12, 2020.

The match was played at Campo do Vao in Vigo.

Coruxo vs Pontevedra — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Coruxo vs Pontevedra