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Coruxo vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Coruxo
Coruxo
CANC
00:00
Melilla
Melilla
3/29/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Campo do Vao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Coruxo58%
×Draw23%
Melilla19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coruxo
1.76
Melilla
0.89

Coruxo creates 98% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

creates per match

Coruxo
1.59
Melilla
1.14

allows per match

Coruxo
0.63
Melilla
1.93

finishing

Coruxo+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coruxo ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Coruxo or draw
81%
Coruxo or Melilla
77%
Draw or Melilla
42%

Winning margin

Coruxo wins by 2+
33%
Melilla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Coruxo 1+ goals
83%
Coruxo 2+ goals
52%
Coruxo 3+ goals
26%
Melilla 1+ goals
59%
Melilla 2+ goals
22%
Melilla 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Coruxo (draw refunded)
75%
Melilla (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coruxo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Melilla away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coruxo attack 1.59 + Melilla defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.76

Melilla attack 1.14 + Coruxo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Coruxo scores more
58%
level
23%
Melilla scores more
19%

Coruxo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Coruxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coruxo face Melilla (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Coruxo hosting Melilla. Match starts March 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Coruxo host Melilla at Campo do Vao.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.