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Coruxo vs Marino de Luanco — League #875 2026

Coruxo
Coruxo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
4/13/2025League #875League #875 · Group 1 - 31Campo do Vao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Coruxo40%
×Draw28%
Marino de Luanco32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coruxo
1.27
Marino de Luanco
1.11

Coruxo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 27 away

creates per match

Coruxo
1.32
Marino de Luanco
1.22

allows per match

Coruxo
1.00
Marino de Luanco
1.22

finishing

Coruxo+0.00on par
Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coruxo ↓

Marino de Luanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Coruxo or draw
68%
Coruxo or Marino de Luanco
72%
Draw or Marino de Luanco
60%

Winning margin

Coruxo wins by 2+
18%
Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Coruxo 1+ goals
72%
Coruxo 2+ goals
36%
Coruxo 3+ goals
14%
Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
67%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
30%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Coruxo (draw refunded)
55%
Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coruxo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coruxo attack 1.32 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Marino de Luanco attack 1.22 + Coruxo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Coruxo scores more
40%
level
28%
Marino de Luanco scores more
32%

Coruxo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coruxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #875: Coruxo 1–1 Marino de Luanco

Coruxo and Marino de Luanco drew 1-1 in League #875 on April 13, 2025.

The match was played at Campo do Vao in Vigo.