Coruxo 1–0 Lealtad: Result & Stats | League #875

Coruxo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lealtad

M. Gandarillas 90+1'

11/9/2025

League #875 · Group 1 - 10Campo do Vao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Coruxo62%

×Draw21%

Lealtad18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoruxoExpected goals in this matchLealtad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.01

Coruxo

2.08

Lealtad

1.01

Coruxo creates 106% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.56

creates per match

0.80

1.22

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Coruxo

1.56

Lealtad

0.80

allows per match

Coruxo

1.22

Lealtad

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coruxo+0.00on par

Lealtad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coruxo ↓

Lealtad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Coruxo or draw

82%

Coruxo or Lealtad

79%

Draw or Lealtad

38%

Winning margin

Coruxo wins by 2+

38%

Lealtad wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Coruxo 1+ goals

87%

Coruxo 2+ goals

61%

Coruxo 3+ goals

34%

Lealtad 1+ goals

64%

Lealtad 2+ goals

27%

Lealtad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Coruxo (draw refunded)

78%

Lealtad (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coruxo at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Lealtad away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coruxo attack 1.56 + Lealtad defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.08

Lealtad attack 0.80 + Coruxo defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Coruxo scores more

62%

level

21%

Lealtad scores more

18%

Coruxo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Coruxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+1'

M. Gandarillas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff