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Coruxo vs Las Palmas II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Coruxo
Coruxo
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
12/15/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Campo do Vao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Coruxo66%
×Draw23%
Las Palmas II11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coruxo
1.70
Las Palmas II
0.52

Coruxo creates 227% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 15 away

creates per match

Coruxo
1.59
Las Palmas II
0.40

allows per match

Coruxo
0.63
Las Palmas II
1.80

finishing

Coruxo+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coruxo ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Coruxo or draw
89%
Coruxo or Las Palmas II
77%
Draw or Las Palmas II
34%

Winning margin

Coruxo wins by 2+
38%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Coruxo 1+ goals
82%
Coruxo 2+ goals
51%
Coruxo 3+ goals
24%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
41%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
10%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Coruxo (draw refunded)
86%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coruxo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coruxo attack 1.59 + Las Palmas II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.70

Las Palmas II attack 0.40 + Coruxo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Coruxo scores more
66%
level
23%
Las Palmas II scores more
11%

Coruxo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Coruxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coruxo vs Las Palmas II

Coruxo beat Las Palmas II 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 15, 2019.

The match was played at Campo do Vao in Vigo.