Coruxo 0–2 Internacional de Madrid: Result & Stats

Coruxo

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Internacional de Madrid

Junior 72'

Rubén Ramos 41'

9/1/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Campo do Vao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Coruxo56%

×Draw26%

Internacional de Madrid17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoruxoExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.70

Coruxo

1.50

Internacional de Madrid

0.70

Coruxo creates 114% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

1.59

creates per match

0.76

0.63

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Coruxo

1.59

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Coruxo

0.63

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coruxo+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coruxo ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Coruxo or draw

83%

Coruxo or Internacional de Madrid

74%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

44%

Winning margin

Coruxo wins by 2+

29%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Coruxo 1+ goals

78%

Coruxo 2+ goals

44%

Coruxo 3+ goals

19%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

50%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

16%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Coruxo (draw refunded)

76%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coruxo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coruxo attack 1.59 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Coruxo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Coruxo scores more

56%

level

26%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

17%

Coruxo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Coruxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Rubén Ramos

58'

A. Sylla← Diego Silva

58'

David Añón← Álex Ares

62'

Arthur← Alvar Herrero

72'

Junior

73'

Borja Yebra← Barril

75'

Aitor Núñez← Diego Simón

83'

Aythami Perera← N. Arkine

Coruxo

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Míchel Alonso

58'▲A. Sylla←▼Diego Silva

58'▲David Añón←▼Álex Ares

73'▲Borja Yebra←▼Barril

Coruxo substitutes

SyllaAñónYebraMendozaFuentesBreaValerón

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

62'▲Arthur←▼Alvar Herrero

75'▲Aitor Núñez←▼Diego Simón

83'▲Aythami Perera←▼N. Arkine

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

ArthurNúñezPereraPedroBoselliMarcãoValero