Coruxo 2–1 Guijuelo: Result & Stats

Coruxo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Guijuelo

11/29/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Campo do Vao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Coruxo60%

×Draw23%

Guijuelo17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoruxoExpected goals in this matchGuijuelo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.81

Coruxo

1.75

Guijuelo

0.81

Coruxo creates 116% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

1.59

creates per match

1.00

0.63

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Coruxo

1.59

Guijuelo

1.00

allows per match

Coruxo

0.63

Guijuelo

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coruxo+0.00on par

Guijuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coruxo ↓

Guijuelo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Coruxo or draw

83%

Coruxo or Guijuelo

77%

Draw or Guijuelo

40%

Winning margin

Coruxo wins by 2+

34%

Guijuelo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Coruxo 1+ goals

83%

Coruxo 2+ goals

52%

Coruxo 3+ goals

25%

Guijuelo 1+ goals

56%

Guijuelo 2+ goals

19%

Guijuelo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Coruxo (draw refunded)

78%

Guijuelo (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coruxo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Guijuelo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coruxo attack 1.59 + Guijuelo defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.75

Guijuelo attack 1.00 + Coruxo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Coruxo scores more

60%

level

23%

Guijuelo scores more

17%

Coruxo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Coruxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff