Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Coruxo vs Covadonga — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Coruxo
Coruxo
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Covadonga
Covadonga
5/23/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 8Campo do Vao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Coruxo64%
×Draw20%
Covadonga15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coruxo
2.06
Covadonga
0.89

Coruxo creates 131% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

creates per match

Coruxo
1.59
Covadonga
1.15

allows per match

Coruxo
0.63
Covadonga
2.54

finishing

Coruxo+0.00on par
Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coruxo ↓

Covadonga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Coruxo or draw
85%
Coruxo or Covadonga
80%
Draw or Covadonga
36%

Winning margin

Coruxo wins by 2+
40%
Covadonga wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Coruxo 1+ goals
87%
Coruxo 2+ goals
61%
Coruxo 3+ goals
34%
Covadonga 1+ goals
59%
Covadonga 2+ goals
22%
Covadonga 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Coruxo (draw refunded)
81%
Covadonga (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coruxo at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.63 · 27 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coruxo attack 1.59 + Covadonga defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.06

Covadonga attack 1.15 + Coruxo defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Coruxo scores more
64%
level
20%
Covadonga scores more
15%

Coruxo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Coruxo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Coruxo 3–2 Covadonga

Coruxo beat Covadonga 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 23, 2021.

The match was played at Campo do Vao in Vigo.