Coruña 1–1 CD Lugo B: Result & Stats

Coruña

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CD Lugo B

2/15/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Campo Municipal San Pedro de Visma I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Coruña40%

×Draw26%

CD Lugo B35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoruñaExpected goals in this matchCD Lugo B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.29

Coruña

1.40

CD Lugo B

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 94 away

1.53

creates per match

1.28

1.29

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Coruña

1.53

CD Lugo B

1.28

allows per match

Coruña

1.29

CD Lugo B

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coruña+0.00on par

CD Lugo B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coruña ↓

CD Lugo B →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Coruña or draw

65%

Coruña or CD Lugo B

74%

Draw or CD Lugo B

60%

Winning margin

Coruña wins by 2+

18%

CD Lugo B wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Coruña 1+ goals

75%

Coruña 2+ goals

41%

Coruña 3+ goals

17%

CD Lugo B 1+ goals

72%

CD Lugo B 2+ goals

37%

CD Lugo B 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Coruña (draw refunded)

53%

CD Lugo B (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Coruña at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

CD Lugo B away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Coruña attack 1.53 + CD Lugo B defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

CD Lugo B attack 1.28 + Coruña defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Coruña scores more

40%

level

26%

CD Lugo B scores more

35%

Coruña at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coruña will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coruña vs CD Lugo B

Coruña and CD Lugo B drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Campo Municipal San Pedro de Visma I in A Coruña (La Coruña).

Coruña vs CD Lugo B — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Coruña vs CD Lugo B