Coruña 2–2 Alondras: Result & Stats

Coruña

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Alondras

10/5/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Campo Municipal San Pedro de Visma I

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Coruña42%

×Draw26%

Alondras32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoruñaExpected goals in this matchAlondras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.22

Coruña

1.42

Alondras

1.22

Coruña creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

1.53

creates per match

1.15

1.29

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Coruña

1.53

Alondras

1.15

allows per match

Coruña

1.29

Alondras

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coruña+0.00on par

Alondras+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coruña ↓

Alondras →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Coruña or draw

68%

Coruña or Alondras

74%

Draw or Alondras

58%

Winning margin

Coruña wins by 2+

20%

Alondras wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Coruña 1+ goals

76%

Coruña 2+ goals

41%

Coruña 3+ goals

17%

Alondras 1+ goals

70%

Alondras 2+ goals

34%

Alondras 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Coruña (draw refunded)

56%

Alondras (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Coruña at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Alondras away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Coruña attack 1.53 + Alondras defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Alondras attack 1.15 + Coruña defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Coruña scores more

42%

level

26%

Alondras scores more

32%

Coruña at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Coruña will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff