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Corumbaense vs Palmas — Serie D 2018

Corumbaense
Corumbaense
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Palmas
Palmas
5/4/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 1Estádio Artur Marinho (Corumbá, Mato Grosso do Sul)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Corumbaense61%
×Draw21%
Palmas18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corumbaense
2.06
Palmas
1.03

Corumbaense creates 100% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Corumbaense
1.83
Palmas
1.06

allows per match

Corumbaense
1.00
Palmas
2.29

finishing

Corumbaense+0.00on par
Palmas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corumbaense ↓

Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Corumbaense or draw
82%
Corumbaense or Palmas
79%
Draw or Palmas
39%

Winning margin

Corumbaense wins by 2+
37%
Palmas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Corumbaense 1+ goals
87%
Corumbaense 2+ goals
61%
Corumbaense 3+ goals
34%
Palmas 1+ goals
64%
Palmas 2+ goals
28%
Palmas 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Corumbaense (draw refunded)
77%
Palmas (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corumbaense at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Palmas away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corumbaense attack 1.83 + Palmas defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.06

Palmas attack 1.06 + Corumbaense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Corumbaense scores more
61%
level
21%
Palmas scores more
18%

Corumbaense at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Corumbaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corumbaense vs Palmas

Corumbaense beat Palmas 3-2 in Serie D on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Artur Marinho (Corumbá, Mato Grosso do Sul).