Çorum FK 2–1 Sarıyer: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Çorum FK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sarıyer

E. Eze 90' (pen)

Pedrinho 24'

P. M. Dembele 82'

8/22/2025

1. Lig · Round 3Corum Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Çorum FK53%

×Draw25%

Sarıyer22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Çorum FKExpected goals in this matchSarıyer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.91

Çorum FK

1.56

Sarıyer

0.91

Çorum FK creates 71% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 19 away

1.66

creates per match

0.84

0.97

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Çorum FK

1.66

Sarıyer

0.84

allows per match

Çorum FK

0.97

Sarıyer

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Çorum FK+0.00on par

Sarıyer+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Çorum FK ↓

Sarıyer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Çorum FK or draw

78%

Çorum FK or Sarıyer

75%

Draw or Sarıyer

47%

Winning margin

Çorum FK wins by 2+

27%

Sarıyer wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Çorum FK 1+ goals

79%

Çorum FK 2+ goals

46%

Çorum FK 3+ goals

21%

Sarıyer 1+ goals

60%

Sarıyer 2+ goals

23%

Sarıyer 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Çorum FK (draw refunded)

70%

Sarıyer (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Çorum FK at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

Sarıyer away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Çorum FK attack 1.66 + Sarıyer defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sarıyer attack 0.84 + Çorum FK defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Çorum FK scores more

53%

level

25%

Sarıyer scores more

22%

Çorum FK at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Çorum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Pedrinho

Çorum FK · M

8.0

Match Events

24'

Pedrinho

26'

Erkan Kaş

43'

A. Regattin← K. Babacar

45+2'

Hamidou Traoré

64'

Pedrinho

68'

M. Mert← H. Traore

68'

O. Bayram← E. Korkmazoglu

70'

Hasan Huseyin Akinay

71'

A. Akkaynak← Pedrinho

71'

A. Cangoz← O. Gurbulak

72'

Atakan Cangöz

76'

E. Karadag← Y. Erdogan

81'

M. A. Buyuksayar← H. E. Yesilyurt

82'

B. Aydogmus← A. Urie

82'

P. M. Dembele↳ J. Anziani

86'

K. Fakili← F. Yazgan

86'

O. Sol← U. Ergun

90+7'

Adrien Regattin

90+5'

Mehmet Ali Büyüksayar

90'

E. EzePenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ÇorumSarıyer

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots13

8Corners2

16Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots13

5On Target3

3Off Target5

1Blocked5

6Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

410Total Passes375

340Accurate Passes311

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls8

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5