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Çorum FK vs Kocaelispor — 1. Lig 2018

Çorum FK
Çorum FK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor
5/16/20241. Lig1. Lig · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundÇorum Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Çorum FK46%
×Draw26%
Kocaelispor27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Çorum FK
1.46
Kocaelispor
1.06

Çorum FK creates 38% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 55 away

creates per match

Çorum FK
1.66
Kocaelispor
1.16

allows per match

Çorum FK
0.97
Kocaelispor
1.25

finishing

Çorum FK+0.00on par
Kocaelispor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Çorum FK ↓

Kocaelispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Çorum FK or draw
73%
Çorum FK or Kocaelispor
74%
Draw or Kocaelispor
54%

Winning margin

Çorum FK wins by 2+
23%
Kocaelispor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Çorum FK 1+ goals
77%
Çorum FK 2+ goals
43%
Çorum FK 3+ goals
18%
Kocaelispor 1+ goals
65%
Kocaelispor 2+ goals
29%
Kocaelispor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Çorum FK (draw refunded)
63%
Kocaelispor (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Çorum FK at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

Kocaelispor away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Çorum FK attack 1.66 + Kocaelispor defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kocaelispor attack 1.16 + Çorum FK defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Çorum FK scores more
46%
level
26%
Kocaelispor scores more
27%

Çorum FK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Çorum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Çorum FK 2–1 Kocaelispor

Çorum FK beat Kocaelispor 2-1 in 1. Lig on May 16, 2024.

The match was played at Çorum Şehir Stadyumu in Çorum.