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Çorum FK vs Iğdır FK — 1. Lig 2018

Çorum FK
Çorum FK
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
10/4/20241. Lig1. Lig · Round 8Çorum Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Çorum FK45%
×Draw26%
Iğdır FK29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Çorum FK
1.50
Iğdır FK
1.16

Çorum FK creates 29% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 38 away

creates per match

Çorum FK
1.66
Iğdır FK
1.34

allows per match

Çorum FK
0.97
Iğdır FK
1.34

finishing

Çorum FK+0.00on par
Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Çorum FK ↓

Iğdır FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Çorum FK or draw
71%
Çorum FK or Iğdır FK
74%
Draw or Iğdır FK
55%

Winning margin

Çorum FK wins by 2+
22%
Iğdır FK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Çorum FK 1+ goals
78%
Çorum FK 2+ goals
44%
Çorum FK 3+ goals
19%
Iğdır FK 1+ goals
69%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
32%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Çorum FK (draw refunded)
61%
Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Çorum FK at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

Iğdır FK away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Çorum FK attack 1.66 + Iğdır FK defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.50

Iğdır FK attack 1.34 + Çorum FK defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Çorum FK scores more
45%
level
26%
Iğdır FK scores more
29%

Çorum FK at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Çorum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Çorum FK 0–0 Iğdır FK

Çorum FK and Iğdır FK drew 0-0 in 1. Lig on October 4, 2024.

The match was played at Çorum Şehir Stadyumu in Çorum.