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Çorum FK vs Fatih Karagümrük — 1. Lig 2018

Çorum FK
Çorum FK
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
8/18/20241. Lig1. Lig · Round 2Çorum Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Çorum FK42%
×Draw27%
Fatih Karagümrük32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Çorum FK
1.37
Fatih Karagümrük
1.16

Çorum FK creates 18% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 37 away

creates per match

Çorum FK
1.66
Fatih Karagümrük
1.35

allows per match

Çorum FK
0.97
Fatih Karagümrük
1.08

finishing

Çorum FK+0.00on par
Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Çorum FK ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Çorum FK or draw
68%
Çorum FK or Fatih Karagümrük
73%
Draw or Fatih Karagümrük
58%

Winning margin

Çorum FK wins by 2+
19%
Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Çorum FK 1+ goals
75%
Çorum FK 2+ goals
40%
Çorum FK 3+ goals
16%
Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
69%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
32%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Çorum FK (draw refunded)
57%
Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Çorum FK at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Çorum FK attack 1.66 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.37

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.35 + Çorum FK defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Çorum FK scores more
42%
level
27%
Fatih Karagümrük scores more
32%

Çorum FK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Çorum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Çorum FK 2–2 Fatih Karagümrük

Çorum FK and Fatih Karagümrük drew 2-2 in 1. Lig on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Çorum Şehir Stadyumu in Çorum.