Çorum FK 4–1 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats

Çorum FK

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Erzurumspor FK

12/10/2023

1. Lig · Round 15Çorum Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Çorum FK44%

×Draw27%

Erzurumspor FK29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Çorum FKExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.06

Çorum FK

1.36

Erzurumspor FK

1.06

Çorum FK creates 28% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 110 away

1.66

creates per match

1.16

0.97

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Çorum FK

1.66

Erzurumspor FK

1.16

allows per match

Çorum FK

0.97

Erzurumspor FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Çorum FK+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Çorum FK ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Çorum FK or draw

71%

Çorum FK or Erzurumspor FK

73%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

56%

Winning margin

Çorum FK wins by 2+

20%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Çorum FK 1+ goals

74%

Çorum FK 2+ goals

39%

Çorum FK 3+ goals

16%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

65%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

29%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Çorum FK (draw refunded)

60%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Çorum FK at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Çorum FK attack 1.66 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.36

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Çorum FK defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Çorum FK scores more

44%

level

27%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

29%

Çorum FK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Çorum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff