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Çorum FK vs Adanaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Çorum FK
Çorum FK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Adanaspor
Adanaspor
4/21/20241. Lig1. Lig · Round 31Çorum Şehir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Çorum FK54%
×Draw25%
Adanaspor21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Çorum FK
1.64
Adanaspor
0.93

Çorum FK creates 76% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 117 away

creates per match

Çorum FK
1.66
Adanaspor
0.89

allows per match

Çorum FK
0.97
Adanaspor
1.62

finishing

Çorum FK+0.00on par
Adanaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Çorum FK ↓

Adanaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Çorum FK or draw
79%
Çorum FK or Adanaspor
75%
Draw or Adanaspor
46%

Winning margin

Çorum FK wins by 2+
29%
Adanaspor wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Çorum FK 1+ goals
81%
Çorum FK 2+ goals
49%
Çorum FK 3+ goals
23%
Adanaspor 1+ goals
61%
Adanaspor 2+ goals
24%
Adanaspor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Çorum FK (draw refunded)
72%
Adanaspor (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Çorum FK at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

Adanaspor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.62 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Çorum FK attack 1.66 + Adanaspor defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.64

Adanaspor attack 0.89 + Çorum FK defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Çorum FK scores more
54%
level
25%
Adanaspor scores more
21%

Çorum FK at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Çorum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Çorum FK 2–0 Adanaspor

Çorum FK beat Adanaspor 2-0 in 1. Lig on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Çorum Şehir Stadyumu in Çorum.