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Cortuluá W vs Deportivo Cali W — Liga Femenina 2020

Cortuluá W
Cortuluá W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Deportivo Cali W
Deportivo Cali W
3/19/2022Liga FemeninaLiga Femenina · Apertura - 7Estadio Doce de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cortuluá W31%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Cali W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortuluá W
1.03
Deportivo Cali W
1.23

Deportivo Cali W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 61 away

creates per match

Cortuluá W
1.06
Deportivo Cali W
1.52

allows per match

Cortuluá W
0.94
Deportivo Cali W
1.00

finishing

Cortuluá W+0.00on par
Deportivo Cali W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortuluá W ↓

Deportivo Cali W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cortuluá W or draw
59%
Cortuluá W or Deportivo Cali W
72%
Draw or Deportivo Cali W
69%

Winning margin

Cortuluá W wins by 2+
12%
Deportivo Cali W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cortuluá W 1+ goals
64%
Cortuluá W 2+ goals
28%
Cortuluá W 3+ goals
9%
Deportivo Cali W 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo Cali W 2+ goals
35%
Deportivo Cali W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cortuluá W (draw refunded)
43%
Deportivo Cali W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortuluá W at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Deportivo Cali W away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.00 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortuluá W attack 1.06 + Deportivo Cali W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Deportivo Cali W attack 1.52 + Cortuluá W defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cortuluá W scores more
31%
level
28%
Deportivo Cali W scores more
41%

Deportivo Cali W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Cali W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Femenina: Cortuluá W 1–3 Deportivo Cali W

Deportivo Cali W beat Cortuluá W 3-1 in Liga Femenina on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Doce de Octubre in Tuluá.