Cortuluá W 0–1 Deportes Tolima W: Result & Stats

Cortuluá W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportes Tolima W

4/23/2022

Liga Femenina · Apertura - 14Estadio Doce de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cortuluá W56%

×Draw23%

Deportes Tolima W20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cortuluá WExpected goals in this matchDeportes Tolima W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.97

Cortuluá W

1.78

Deportes Tolima W

0.97

Cortuluá W creates 84% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

1.06

creates per match

1.00

0.94

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Cortuluá W

1.06

Deportes Tolima W

1.00

allows per match

Cortuluá W

0.94

Deportes Tolima W

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cortuluá W+0.00on par

Deportes Tolima W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortuluá W ↓

Deportes Tolima W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cortuluá W or draw

80%

Cortuluá W or Deportes Tolima W

77%

Draw or Deportes Tolima W

44%

Winning margin

Cortuluá W wins by 2+

32%

Deportes Tolima W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cortuluá W 1+ goals

83%

Cortuluá W 2+ goals

53%

Cortuluá W 3+ goals

26%

Deportes Tolima W 1+ goals

62%

Deportes Tolima W 2+ goals

25%

Deportes Tolima W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cortuluá W (draw refunded)

73%

Deportes Tolima W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortuluá W at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Deportes Tolima W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortuluá W attack 1.06 + Deportes Tolima W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.78

Deportes Tolima W attack 1.00 + Cortuluá W defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cortuluá W scores more

56%

level

23%

Deportes Tolima W scores more

20%

Cortuluá W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cortuluá W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff