Cortulua 1–2 Union Magdalena: Result & Stats

Cortulua

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Union Magdalena

9/10/2022

Primera A · Clausura - 11Estadio Doce de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cortulua44%

×Draw28%

Union Magdalena27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CortuluaExpected goals in this matchUnion Magdalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.95

Cortulua

1.29

Union Magdalena

0.95

Cortulua creates 36% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 83 away

0.92

creates per match

0.63

1.26

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Cortulua

0.92

Union Magdalena

0.63

allows per match

Cortulua

1.26

Union Magdalena

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par

Union Magdalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Union Magdalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw

73%

Cortulua or Union Magdalena

72%

Draw or Union Magdalena

56%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+

20%

Union Magdalena wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals

72%

Cortulua 2+ goals

37%

Cortulua 3+ goals

14%

Union Magdalena 1+ goals

61%

Union Magdalena 2+ goals

25%

Union Magdalena 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)

62%

Union Magdalena (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Union Magdalena away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.67 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 0.92 + Union Magdalena defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.29

Union Magdalena attack 0.63 + Cortulua defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cortulua scores more

44%

level

28%

Union Magdalena scores more

27%

Cortulua at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cortulua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff