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Cortulua vs Patriotas — Primera B 2018

Cortulua
Cortulua
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Patriotas
Patriotas
10/7/2023Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 15Estadio Doce de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Cortulua49%
×Draw28%
Patriotas23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortulua
1.35
Patriotas
0.83

Cortulua creates 63% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 52 away

creates per match

Cortulua
1.62
Patriotas
0.90

allows per match

Cortulua
0.76
Patriotas
1.08

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par
Patriotas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Patriotas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw
77%
Cortulua or Patriotas
72%
Draw or Patriotas
51%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+
23%
Patriotas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals
74%
Cortulua 2+ goals
39%
Cortulua 3+ goals
15%
Patriotas 1+ goals
56%
Patriotas 2+ goals
20%
Patriotas 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)
68%
Patriotas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.76 · 94 matches

Patriotas away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.08 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 1.62 + Patriotas defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.35

Patriotas attack 0.90 + Cortulua defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cortulua scores more
49%
level
28%
Patriotas scores more
23%

Cortulua at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cortulua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Cortulua 3–1 Patriotas

Cortulua beat Patriotas 3-1 in Primera B on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Doce de Octubre in Tuluá.