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Cortulua vs Deportes Tolima — Primera A 2018

Cortulua
Cortulua
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Deportes Tolima
Deportes Tolima
3/8/2022Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 10Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cortulua29%
×Draw29%
Deportes Tolima42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortulua
0.97
Deportes Tolima
1.24

Deportes Tolima creates 28% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 196 away

creates per match

Cortulua
0.92
Deportes Tolima
1.22

allows per match

Cortulua
1.26
Deportes Tolima
1.01

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par
Deportes Tolima+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Deportes Tolima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw
58%
Cortulua or Deportes Tolima
71%
Draw or Deportes Tolima
71%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+
10%
Deportes Tolima wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals
62%
Cortulua 2+ goals
25%
Cortulua 3+ goals
7%
Deportes Tolima 1+ goals
71%
Deportes Tolima 2+ goals
35%
Deportes Tolima 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)
41%
Deportes Tolima (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Deportes Tolima away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 196 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 0.92 + Deportes Tolima defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Deportes Tolima attack 1.22 + Cortulua defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cortulua scores more
29%
level
29%
Deportes Tolima scores more
42%

Deportes Tolima at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportes Tolima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cortulua vs Deportes Tolima

Deportes Tolima beat Cortulua 3-1 in Primera A on March 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero in Santiago de Cali.