Cortulua 1–0 Chico: Result & Stats | Primera B

Cortulua

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chico

11/27/2021

Primera B · Clausura - Quadrangular - 5Estadio Doce de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Cortulua45%

×Draw29%

Chico26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CortuluaExpected goals in this matchChico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.86

Cortulua

1.23

Chico

0.86

Cortulua creates 43% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 57 away

1.62

creates per match

0.96

0.76

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Cortulua

1.62

Chico

0.96

allows per match

Cortulua

0.76

Chico

0.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par

Chico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Chico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw

74%

Cortulua or Chico

71%

Draw or Chico

55%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+

20%

Chico wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals

71%

Cortulua 2+ goals

35%

Cortulua 3+ goals

13%

Chico 1+ goals

58%

Chico 2+ goals

21%

Chico 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)

63%

Chico (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.76 · 94 matches

Chico away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.84 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 1.62 + Chico defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chico attack 0.96 + Cortulua defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cortulua scores more

45%

level

29%

Chico scores more

26%

Cortulua at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cortulua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff