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Cortulua vs Bogota FC — Primera B 2018

Cortulua
Cortulua
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bogota FC
Bogota FC
5/13/2023Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 16Estadio Raúl Miranda Yumbo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Cortulua57%
×Draw25%
Bogota FC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortulua
1.62
Bogota FC
0.81

Cortulua creates 100% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 138 away

creates per match

Cortulua
1.62
Bogota FC
0.86

allows per match

Cortulua
0.76
Bogota FC
1.61

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par
Bogota FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Bogota FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw
81%
Cortulua or Bogota FC
75%
Draw or Bogota FC
43%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+
31%
Bogota FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals
80%
Cortulua 2+ goals
48%
Cortulua 3+ goals
22%
Bogota FC 1+ goals
56%
Bogota FC 2+ goals
19%
Bogota FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)
75%
Bogota FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.76 · 94 matches

Bogota FC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.61 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 1.62 + Bogota FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Bogota FC attack 0.86 + Cortulua defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cortulua scores more
57%
level
25%
Bogota FC scores more
19%

Cortulua at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cortulua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Cortulua 0–0 Bogota FC

Cortulua and Bogota FC drew 0-0 in Primera B on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Miranda Yumbo in Yumbo.