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Cortulua vs Barranquilla — Primera B 2018

Cortulua
Cortulua
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Barranquilla
Barranquilla
5/25/2019Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - Quadrangular - 4Estadio Doce de Octubre (Tuluá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Cortulua57%
×Draw25%
Barranquilla18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortulua
1.62
Barranquilla
0.79

Cortulua creates 105% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 135 away

creates per match

Cortulua
1.62
Barranquilla
0.82

allows per match

Cortulua
0.76
Barranquilla
1.61

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par
Barranquilla+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Barranquilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw
82%
Cortulua or Barranquilla
75%
Draw or Barranquilla
43%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+
31%
Barranquilla wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals
80%
Cortulua 2+ goals
48%
Cortulua 3+ goals
22%
Barranquilla 1+ goals
55%
Barranquilla 2+ goals
19%
Barranquilla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)
76%
Barranquilla (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.76 · 94 matches

Barranquilla away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.61 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 1.62 + Barranquilla defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Barranquilla attack 0.82 + Cortulua defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cortulua scores more
57%
level
25%
Barranquilla scores more
18%

Cortulua at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cortulua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Cortulua 2–0 Barranquilla

Cortulua beat Barranquilla 2-0 in Primera B on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Doce de Octubre (Tuluá).