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Barranquilla vs Cortulua — Primera B 2018

Barranquilla
Barranquilla
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Cortulua
Cortulua
3/8/2023Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 6Estadio Romelio Martínez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Barranquilla40%
×Draw27%
Cortulua33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barranquilla
1.32
Cortulua
1.17

Barranquilla creates 13% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 93 away

creates per match

Barranquilla
1.21
Cortulua
1.23

allows per match

Barranquilla
1.11
Cortulua
1.43

finishing

Barranquilla+0.00on par
Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barranquilla ↓

Cortulua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barranquilla or draw
67%
Barranquilla or Cortulua
73%
Draw or Cortulua
60%

Winning margin

Barranquilla wins by 2+
18%
Cortulua wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Barranquilla 1+ goals
73%
Barranquilla 2+ goals
38%
Barranquilla 3+ goals
15%
Cortulua 1+ goals
69%
Cortulua 2+ goals
33%
Cortulua 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Barranquilla (draw refunded)
55%
Cortulua (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barranquilla at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Cortulua away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barranquilla attack 1.21 + Cortulua defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cortulua attack 1.23 + Barranquilla defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Barranquilla scores more
40%
level
27%
Cortulua scores more
33%

Barranquilla at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Barranquilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Barranquilla 0–5 Cortulua

Cortulua beat Barranquilla 5-0 in Primera B on March 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Romelio Martínez in Barranquilla.