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Cortulua vs America de Cali — Primera A 2018

Cortulua
Cortulua
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
America de Cali
America de Cali
2/4/2022Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 4Estadio Doce de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cortulua34%
×Draw29%
America de Cali37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortulua
1.09
America de Cali
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 191 away

creates per match

Cortulua
0.92
America de Cali
1.04

allows per match

Cortulua
1.26
America de Cali
1.26

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw
63%
Cortulua or America de Cali
71%
Draw or America de Cali
66%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+
14%
America de Cali wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals
66%
Cortulua 2+ goals
30%
Cortulua 3+ goals
10%
America de Cali 1+ goals
68%
America de Cali 2+ goals
32%
America de Cali 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)
48%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.26 · 191 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 0.92 + America de Cali defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.09

America de Cali attack 1.04 + Cortulua defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cortulua scores more
34%
level
29%
America de Cali scores more
37%

America de Cali at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cortulua vs America de Cali

Cortulua beat America de Cali 2-0 in Primera A on February 4, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Doce de Octubre in Tuluá.