Cortulua 0–0 Águilas Doradas: Result & Stats

Cortulua

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Águilas Doradas

10/30/2022

Primera A · Clausura - 20Estadio Doce de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Cortulua32%

×Draw30%

Águilas Doradas38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CortuluaExpected goals in this matchÁguilas Doradas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.10

Cortulua

0.99

Águilas Doradas

1.10

Águilas Doradas creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 168 away

0.67

creates per match

0.98

1.23

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Cortulua

0.67

Águilas Doradas

0.98

allows per match

Cortulua

1.23

Águilas Doradas

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par

Águilas Doradas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Águilas Doradas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw

62%

Cortulua or Águilas Doradas

70%

Draw or Águilas Doradas

68%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+

12%

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals

63%

Cortulua 2+ goals

26%

Cortulua 3+ goals

8%

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

67%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

30%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)

46%

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Águilas Doradas away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 0.67 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.99

Águilas Doradas attack 0.98 + Cortulua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cortulua scores more

32%

level

30%

Águilas Doradas scores more

38%

Águilas Doradas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Rivas

Águilas Doradas · M

8.3

Match Events

35'

Jeisson Quiñónes

40'

Jose David Contreras

46'

J. Blanco← M. Pérez

49'

Henry RojasPenalty cancelled

60'

Orlando Berrío

62'

Joel Contreras← O. Berrío

65'

J. Colorado← M. Herrera

65'

J. Rodriguez← B. Villalobos

70'

Y. Hurtado← A. Vásquez

73'

D. García← M. Gonzalez

77'

J. Díaz← R. Flores

82'

S. Vergara← K. Valencia

84'

Jesús Rivas

90+1'

A. Aedo← E. Martínez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CortuluaÁguilas

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots14

7Corners7

8Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target4

4Off Target9

1Blocked1

6Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

47%Possession53%

335Total Passes377

252Accurate Passes290

75%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls13

0Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1

Primera A: Cortulua 0–0 Águilas Doradas

Cortulua and Águilas Doradas drew 0-0 in Primera A on October 30, 2022.

Águilas Doradas controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Doce de Octubre in Tuluá.

Cortulua vs Águilas Doradas — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Cortulua 0–0 Águilas Doradas