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Cortes vs Subiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Cortes
Cortes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Subiza
Subiza
2/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 19Estadio San Francisco Javier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Cortes41%
×Draw28%
Subiza31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortes
1.26
Subiza
1.04

Cortes creates 21% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 93 away

creates per match

Cortes
1.32
Subiza
1.32

allows per match

Cortes
0.77
Subiza
1.20

finishing

Cortes+0.00on par
Subiza+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortes ↓

Subiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cortes or draw
69%
Cortes or Subiza
72%
Draw or Subiza
59%

Winning margin

Cortes wins by 2+
18%
Subiza wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cortes 1+ goals
72%
Cortes 2+ goals
36%
Cortes 3+ goals
13%
Subiza 1+ goals
65%
Subiza 2+ goals
28%
Subiza 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cortes (draw refunded)
58%
Subiza (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortes at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.77 · 108 matches

Subiza away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortes attack 1.32 + Subiza defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.26

Subiza attack 1.32 + Cortes defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cortes scores more
41%
level
28%
Subiza scores more
31%

Cortes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cortes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cortes 1 – 1 Subiza

Cortes and Subiza drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Francisco Javier in Navarra.