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Cortes vs Peña Azagresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Cortes
Cortes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
12/20/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 10Estadio San Francisco Javier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Cortes59%
×Draw22%
Peña Azagresa19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortes
1.88
Peña Azagresa
0.95

Cortes creates 98% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 28 away

creates per match

Cortes
1.32
Peña Azagresa
1.14

allows per match

Cortes
0.77
Peña Azagresa
2.43

finishing

Cortes+0.00on par
Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortes ↓

Peña Azagresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cortes or draw
81%
Cortes or Peña Azagresa
78%
Draw or Peña Azagresa
41%

Winning margin

Cortes wins by 2+
35%
Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cortes 1+ goals
85%
Cortes 2+ goals
56%
Cortes 3+ goals
29%
Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
61%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
25%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cortes (draw refunded)
76%
Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortes at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.77 · 108 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortes attack 1.32 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.88

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + Cortes defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cortes scores more
59%
level
22%
Peña Azagresa scores more
19%

Cortes at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cortes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Cortes 2–1 Peña Azagresa

Cortes beat Peña Azagresa 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on December 20, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio San Francisco Javier in Navarra.