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Cortes vs Beti Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Cortes
Cortes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Beti Onak
Beti Onak
11/15/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 11Estadio San Francisco Javier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Cortes48%
×Draw27%
Beti Onak25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cortes
1.42
Beti Onak
0.95

Cortes creates 49% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 109 away

creates per match

Cortes
1.32
Beti Onak
1.13

allows per match

Cortes
0.77
Beti Onak
1.51

finishing

Cortes+0.00on par
Beti Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortes ↓

Beti Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cortes or draw
75%
Cortes or Beti Onak
73%
Draw or Beti Onak
52%

Winning margin

Cortes wins by 2+
23%
Beti Onak wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cortes 1+ goals
76%
Cortes 2+ goals
41%
Cortes 3+ goals
17%
Beti Onak 1+ goals
61%
Beti Onak 2+ goals
25%
Beti Onak 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cortes (draw refunded)
65%
Beti Onak (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortes at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.77 · 108 matches

Beti Onak away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortes attack 1.32 + Beti Onak defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Beti Onak attack 1.13 + Cortes defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cortes scores more
48%
level
27%
Beti Onak scores more
25%

Cortes at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cortes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Cortes 2–1 Beti Onak

Cortes beat Beti Onak 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio San Francisco Javier in Cortes (Navarra).