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Correcaminos Uat vs Venados FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Correcaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Venados FC
Venados FC
3/24/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 12Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Correcaminos Uat45%
×Draw26%
Venados FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Correcaminos Uat
1.50
Venados FC
1.17

Correcaminos Uat creates 28% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 129 away

creates per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.42
Venados FC
0.98

allows per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.35
Venados FC
1.58

finishing

Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par
Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Correcaminos Uat ↓

Venados FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Correcaminos Uat or draw
70%
Correcaminos Uat or Venados FC
74%
Draw or Venados FC
55%

Winning margin

Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+
22%
Venados FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals
78%
Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals
44%
Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals
19%
Venados FC 1+ goals
69%
Venados FC 2+ goals
33%
Venados FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)
60%
Venados FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Correcaminos Uat at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 116 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Correcaminos Uat attack 1.42 + Venados FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Correcaminos Uat scores more
45%
level
26%
Venados FC scores more
30%

Correcaminos Uat at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Correcaminos Uat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Correcaminos Uat 2 – 1 Venados FC

Correcaminos Uat beat Venados FC 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez in Ciudad Victoria.