Correcaminos Uat 1–1 Tlaxcala: Result & Stats

Correcaminos Uat

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tlaxcala

3/1/2024

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Correcaminos Uat48%

×Draw25%

Tlaxcala26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Correcaminos UatExpected goals in this matchTlaxcala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.08

Correcaminos Uat

1.56

Tlaxcala

1.08

Correcaminos Uat creates 44% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 95 away

1.42

creates per match

0.80

1.35

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Correcaminos Uat

1.42

Tlaxcala

0.80

allows per match

Correcaminos Uat

1.35

Tlaxcala

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par

Tlaxcala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Correcaminos Uat ↓

Tlaxcala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Correcaminos Uat or draw

74%

Correcaminos Uat or Tlaxcala

75%

Draw or Tlaxcala

52%

Winning margin

Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+

25%

Tlaxcala wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals

79%

Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals

46%

Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals

21%

Tlaxcala 1+ goals

66%

Tlaxcala 2+ goals

29%

Tlaxcala 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)

65%

Tlaxcala (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Correcaminos Uat at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 116 matches

Tlaxcala away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.71 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Correcaminos Uat attack 1.42 + Tlaxcala defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tlaxcala attack 0.80 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Correcaminos Uat scores more

48%

level

25%

Tlaxcala scores more

26%

Correcaminos Uat at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Correcaminos Uat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff