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Correcaminos Uat vs Mineros de Zacatecas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Correcaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
11/1/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Correcaminos Uat42%
×Draw25%
Mineros de Zacatecas33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Correcaminos Uat
1.48
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.29

Correcaminos Uat creates 15% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 136 away

creates per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.42
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.24

allows per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.35
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.53

finishing

Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par
Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Correcaminos Uat ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Correcaminos Uat or draw
67%
Correcaminos Uat or Mineros de Zacatecas
75%
Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas
58%

Winning margin

Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+
20%
Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals
77%
Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals
43%
Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals
19%
Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
72%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
37%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)
56%
Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Correcaminos Uat at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 116 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Correcaminos Uat attack 1.42 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.24 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Correcaminos Uat scores more
42%
level
25%
Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
33%

Correcaminos Uat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Correcaminos Uat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Correcaminos Uat vs Mineros de Zacatecas

Mineros de Zacatecas beat Correcaminos Uat 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez in Ciudad Victoria.