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Correcaminos Uat vs Leones Negros UDG — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Correcaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
8/16/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 3Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Correcaminos Uat42%
×Draw26%
Leones Negros UDG32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Correcaminos Uat
1.42
Leones Negros UDG
1.20

Correcaminos Uat creates 18% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 134 away

creates per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.42
Leones Negros UDG
1.04

allows per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.35
Leones Negros UDG
1.42

finishing

Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par
Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Correcaminos Uat ↓

Leones Negros UDG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Correcaminos Uat or draw
68%
Correcaminos Uat or Leones Negros UDG
74%
Draw or Leones Negros UDG
58%

Winning margin

Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+
20%
Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals
76%
Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals
41%
Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals
17%
Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
70%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
34%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)
57%
Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Correcaminos Uat at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 116 matches

Leones Negros UDG away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Correcaminos Uat attack 1.42 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.04 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Correcaminos Uat scores more
42%
level
26%
Leones Negros UDG scores more
32%

Correcaminos Uat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Correcaminos Uat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Correcaminos Uat 1–2 Leones Negros UDG

Leones Negros UDG beat Correcaminos Uat 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez in Ciudad Victoria.