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Correcaminos Uat vs Celaya — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Correcaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Celaya
Celaya
10/6/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Correcaminos Uat37%
×Draw27%
Celaya36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Correcaminos Uat
1.27
Celaya
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 116 home / 119 away

creates per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.42
Celaya
1.15

allows per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.35
Celaya
1.13

finishing

Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par
Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Correcaminos Uat ↓

Celaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Correcaminos Uat or draw
64%
Correcaminos Uat or Celaya
73%
Draw or Celaya
63%

Winning margin

Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+
16%
Celaya wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals
72%
Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals
36%
Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals
14%
Celaya 1+ goals
71%
Celaya 2+ goals
36%
Celaya 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)
51%
Celaya (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Correcaminos Uat at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 116 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Correcaminos Uat attack 1.42 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Celaya attack 1.15 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Correcaminos Uat scores more
37%
level
27%
Celaya scores more
36%

Correcaminos Uat at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Correcaminos Uat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Correcaminos Uat vs Celaya

Celaya beat Correcaminos Uat 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez in Ciudad Victoria.