Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Correcaminos Uat vs CA La Paz — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Correcaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
CA La Paz
CA La Paz
8/9/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 3Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Correcaminos Uat52%
×Draw23%
CA La Paz25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Correcaminos Uat
1.85
CA La Paz
1.22

Correcaminos Uat creates 52% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 64 away

creates per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.42
CA La Paz
1.09

allows per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.35
CA La Paz
2.28

finishing

Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par
CA La Paz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Correcaminos Uat ↓

CA La Paz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Correcaminos Uat or draw
75%
Correcaminos Uat or CA La Paz
77%
Draw or CA La Paz
48%

Winning margin

Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+
29%
CA La Paz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals
84%
Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals
55%
Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals
28%
CA La Paz 1+ goals
70%
CA La Paz 2+ goals
34%
CA La Paz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)
67%
CA La Paz (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Correcaminos Uat at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 116 matches

CA La Paz away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.28 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Correcaminos Uat attack 1.42 + CA La Paz defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.85

CA La Paz attack 1.09 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Correcaminos Uat scores more
52%
level
23%
CA La Paz scores more
25%

Correcaminos Uat at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Correcaminos Uat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Correcaminos Uat 5 – 1 CA La Paz

Correcaminos Uat beat CA La Paz 5-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez in Ciudad Victoria.