Correcaminos Uat 1–1 Atlante FC: Result & Stats

Correcaminos Uat

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atlante FC

J. Tovar 27' (OG)

L. Puente 42'

2/14/2026

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Correcaminos Uat36%

×Draw27%

Atlante FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Correcaminos UatExpected goals in this matchAtlante FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.28

Correcaminos Uat

1.25

Atlante FC

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 152 away

1.41

creates per match

1.21

1.35

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Correcaminos Uat

1.41

Atlante FC

1.21

allows per match

Correcaminos Uat

1.35

Atlante FC

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par

Atlante FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Correcaminos Uat ↓

Atlante FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Correcaminos Uat or draw

63%

Correcaminos Uat or Atlante FC

73%

Draw or Atlante FC

64%

Winning margin

Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+

16%

Atlante FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals

71%

Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals

36%

Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals

13%

Atlante FC 1+ goals

72%

Atlante FC 2+ goals

37%

Atlante FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)

49%

Atlante FC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Correcaminos Uat at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.35 · 121 matches

Atlante FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Correcaminos Uat attack 1.41 + Atlante FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atlante FC attack 1.21 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Correcaminos Uat scores more

36%

level

27%

Atlante FC scores more

37%

Atlante FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlante FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

13'

18'

23'

27'

J. TovarOwn goal

34'

L. A. Olivas Salcedo

42'

L. Puente↳ E. Jimenez

45+2'

54'

56'

65'

65'

M. Garcia Pardo← J. Ibarra

70'

R. Prieto← T. Sandoval

70'

D. Pineda← N. Gomez Del Rosal

76'

S. Gonzalez← L. Puente

76'

J. Gonzalez← C. Bermudez

83'

87'

89'

90+1'

Correcaminos

Atlante

26

Beltran

4

Salcedo

20

🥅

▼

Tovar

18

▼

Bermudez

22

Calzadill

9

⚽

▼

Puente

3

▼

Cruz

6

Carrera

5

Meza

21

▼

Ibarra

34

A

Jimenez

2

▼

Ortega

4

Pinuelas

7

Cisneros

12

▼

14

19

22

23

24

25

32

▼

Sandoval

Manager: Gustavo Diaz Dominguez

70'▲R. Prieto←▼T. Sandoval

70'▲D. Pineda←▼N. Gomez Del Rosal

83'▲D. Mina←▼W. Ortega

Correcaminos Uat substitutes

1Castellanos5Monarrez104Arce21Prieto9Delgadillo3Rubio6Martinez11Uribe33Mina29Pineda

Manager: Ricardo Carbajal

65'▲R. Gonzalez←▼D. Cruz

65'▲M. Garcia Pardo←▼J. Ibarra

76'▲S. Gonzalez←▼L. Puente

76'▲J. Gonzalez←▼C. Bermudez

90+1'▲R. Coubert←▼J. Tovar

Atlante FC substitutes

1Barragan8Gonzalez13Pardo24Pizzuto19Gonzalez7Garcia10Alonzo17Mejia16Gonzalez25Coubert