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Correcaminos Uat vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Correcaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
4/18/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Correcaminos Uat48%
×Draw25%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Correcaminos Uat
1.61
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.14

Correcaminos Uat creates 41% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 124 away

creates per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.42
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
0.93

allows per match

Correcaminos Uat
1.35
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.80

finishing

Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par
Alebrijes de Oaxaca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Correcaminos Uat ↓

Alebrijes de Oaxaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Correcaminos Uat or draw
73%
Correcaminos Uat or Alebrijes de Oaxaca
75%
Draw or Alebrijes de Oaxaca
52%

Winning margin

Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+
25%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals
80%
Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals
48%
Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals
22%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1+ goals
68%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2+ goals
32%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)
64%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Correcaminos Uat at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 116 matches

Alebrijes de Oaxaca away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Correcaminos Uat attack 1.42 + Alebrijes de Oaxaca defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.61

Alebrijes de Oaxaca attack 0.93 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Correcaminos Uat scores more
48%
level
25%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca scores more
27%

Correcaminos Uat at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Correcaminos Uat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Correcaminos Uat 1–3 Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Alebrijes de Oaxaca beat Correcaminos Uat 3-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on April 18, 2026.