Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Corona Braşov vs Unirea Dej — Liga II 2018

Corona Braşov
Corona Braşov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unirea Dej
Unirea Dej
8/28/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 5Stadionul Tineretului

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Corona Braşov28%
×Draw26%
Unirea Dej46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corona Braşov
1.11
Unirea Dej
1.50

Unirea Dej creates 35% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 38 away

creates per match

Corona Braşov
1.10
Unirea Dej
0.89

allows per match

Corona Braşov
2.10
Unirea Dej
1.13

finishing

Corona Braşov+0.00on par
Unirea Dej+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corona Braşov ↓

Unirea Dej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Corona Braşov or draw
54%
Corona Braşov or Unirea Dej
74%
Draw or Unirea Dej
72%

Winning margin

Corona Braşov wins by 2+
11%
Unirea Dej wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Corona Braşov 1+ goals
67%
Corona Braşov 2+ goals
30%
Corona Braşov 3+ goals
10%
Unirea Dej 1+ goals
78%
Unirea Dej 2+ goals
44%
Unirea Dej 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Corona Braşov (draw refunded)
38%
Unirea Dej (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corona Braşov at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Unirea Dej away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corona Braşov attack 1.10 + Unirea Dej defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Unirea Dej attack 0.89 + Corona Braşov defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Corona Braşov scores more
28%
level
26%
Unirea Dej scores more
46%

Unirea Dej at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Unirea Dej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corona Braşov vs Unirea Dej

Corona Braşov beat Unirea Dej 1-0 in Liga II on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Tineretului in Braşov.