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Corona Braşov vs Metaloglobus — Liga II 2018

Corona Braşov
Corona Braşov
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Metaloglobus
Metaloglobus
3/5/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 18Stadionul Tineretului

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Corona Braşov31%
×Draw25%
Metaloglobus45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corona Braşov
1.27
Metaloglobus
1.58

Metaloglobus creates 24% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 96 away

creates per match

Corona Braşov
1.10
Metaloglobus
1.07

allows per match

Corona Braşov
2.10
Metaloglobus
1.43

finishing

Corona Braşov+0.00on par
Metaloglobus+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corona Braşov ↓

Metaloglobus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Corona Braşov or draw
55%
Corona Braşov or Metaloglobus
75%
Draw or Metaloglobus
69%

Winning margin

Corona Braşov wins by 2+
13%
Metaloglobus wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Corona Braşov 1+ goals
72%
Corona Braşov 2+ goals
36%
Corona Braşov 3+ goals
14%
Metaloglobus 1+ goals
79%
Metaloglobus 2+ goals
47%
Metaloglobus 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Corona Braşov (draw refunded)
41%
Metaloglobus (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corona Braşov at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Metaloglobus away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corona Braşov attack 1.10 + Metaloglobus defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Metaloglobus attack 1.07 + Corona Braşov defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Corona Braşov scores more
31%
level
25%
Metaloglobus scores more
45%

Metaloglobus at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Metaloglobus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Corona Braşov vs Metaloglobus

Metaloglobus beat Corona Braşov 2-0 in Liga II on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Tineretului in Braşov.