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Corona Braşov vs FC Politehnica Timisoara — Liga II 2018

Corona Braşov
Corona Braşov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
11/20/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 14Stadionul Tineretului

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Corona Braşov30%
×Draw26%
FC Politehnica Timisoara44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corona Braşov
1.17
FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.47

FC Politehnica Timisoara creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 70 away

creates per match

Corona Braşov
1.10
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.83

allows per match

Corona Braşov
2.10
FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.23

finishing

Corona Braşov+0.00on par
FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corona Braşov ↓

FC Politehnica Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Corona Braşov or draw
56%
Corona Braşov or FC Politehnica Timisoara
74%
Draw or FC Politehnica Timisoara
70%

Winning margin

Corona Braşov wins by 2+
12%
FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Corona Braşov 1+ goals
69%
Corona Braşov 2+ goals
33%
Corona Braşov 3+ goals
11%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
77%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
43%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Corona Braşov (draw refunded)
41%
FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corona Braşov at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corona Braşov attack 1.10 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 0.83 + Corona Braşov defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Corona Braşov scores more
30%
level
26%
FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
44%

FC Politehnica Timisoara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Politehnica Timisoara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Corona Braşov 0–1 FC Politehnica Timisoara

FC Politehnica Timisoara beat Corona Braşov 1-0 in Liga II on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Tineretului in Braşov.