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Corona Braşov vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti — Liga II 2018

Corona Braşov
Corona Braşov
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
9/24/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 8Stadionul Tineretului

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Corona Braşov24%
×Draw23%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corona Braşov
1.14
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.78

CSA Steaua Bucureşti creates 56% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 72 away

creates per match

Corona Braşov
1.10
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.46

allows per match

Corona Braşov
2.10
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.17

finishing

Corona Braşov+0.00on par
CSA Steaua Bucureşti+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corona Braşov ↓

CSA Steaua Bucureşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Corona Braşov or draw
48%
Corona Braşov or CSA Steaua Bucureşti
77%
Draw or CSA Steaua Bucureşti
76%

Winning margin

Corona Braşov wins by 2+
9%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Corona Braşov 1+ goals
68%
Corona Braşov 2+ goals
32%
Corona Braşov 3+ goals
11%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 1+ goals
83%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 2+ goals
53%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Corona Braşov (draw refunded)
32%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corona Braşov at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

CSA Steaua Bucureşti away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.17 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corona Braşov attack 1.10 + CSA Steaua Bucureşti defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

CSA Steaua Bucureşti attack 1.46 + Corona Braşov defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Corona Braşov scores more
24%
level
23%
CSA Steaua Bucureşti scores more
52%

CSA Steaua Bucureşti at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "CSA Steaua Bucureşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Corona Braşov 0–1 CSA Steaua Bucureşti

CSA Steaua Bucureşti beat Corona Braşov 1-0 in Liga II on September 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Tineretului in Braşov.