Corona Braşov 1–2 AFC Hermannstadt: Result & Stats

Corona Braşov

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

AFC Hermannstadt

10/30/2021

Liga II · Round 12Stadionul Tineretului

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Corona Braşov16%

×Draw22%

AFC Hermannstadt63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Corona BraşovExpected goals in this matchAFC Hermannstadt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.91

Corona Braşov

0.83

AFC Hermannstadt

1.91

AFC Hermannstadt creates 130% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

1.10

creates per match

1.71

2.10

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Corona Braşov

1.10

AFC Hermannstadt

1.71

allows per match

Corona Braşov

2.10

AFC Hermannstadt

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Corona Braşov+0.00on par

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corona Braşov ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Corona Braşov or draw

37%

Corona Braşov or AFC Hermannstadt

78%

Draw or AFC Hermannstadt

84%

Winning margin

Corona Braşov wins by 2+

5%

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Corona Braşov 1+ goals

56%

Corona Braşov 2+ goals

20%

Corona Braşov 3+ goals

5%

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals

85%

AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals

57%

AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Corona Braşov (draw refunded)

20%

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corona Braşov at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corona Braşov attack 1.10 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.83

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.71 + Corona Braşov defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Corona Braşov scores more

16%

level

22%

AFC Hermannstadt scores more

63%

AFC Hermannstadt at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "AFC Hermannstadt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff