Corona Braşov 2–2 ACS Sirineasa: Result & Stats

Corona Braşov

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

ACS Sirineasa

8/1/2021

Liga II · Round 1Stadionul Tineretului

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Corona Braşov32%

×Draw24%

ACS Sirineasa44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Corona BraşovExpected goals in this matchACS Sirineasa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.60

Corona Braşov

1.33

ACS Sirineasa

1.60

ACS Sirineasa creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 84 away

1.10

creates per match

1.11

2.10

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Corona Braşov

1.10

ACS Sirineasa

1.11

allows per match

Corona Braşov

2.10

ACS Sirineasa

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Corona Braşov+0.00on par

ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corona Braşov ↓

ACS Sirineasa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Corona Braşov or draw

56%

Corona Braşov or ACS Sirineasa

76%

Draw or ACS Sirineasa

68%

Winning margin

Corona Braşov wins by 2+

14%

ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Corona Braşov 1+ goals

74%

Corona Braşov 2+ goals

38%

Corona Braşov 3+ goals

15%

ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals

80%

ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals

47%

ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Corona Braşov (draw refunded)

42%

ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corona Braşov at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corona Braşov attack 1.10 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + Corona Braşov defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Corona Braşov scores more

32%

level

24%

ACS Sirineasa scores more

44%

ACS Sirineasa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "ACS Sirineasa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff