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Cornellà vs Villarreal II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villarreal II
Villarreal II
4/23/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Campo Nuevo Municipal de Cornella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cornellà38%
×Draw30%
Villarreal II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.08
Villarreal II
0.95

Cornellà creates 14% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Cornellà
1.08
Villarreal II
1.19

allows per match

Cornellà
0.71
Villarreal II
1.07

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Villarreal II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
69%
Cornellà or Villarreal II
70%
Draw or Villarreal II
62%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
15%
Villarreal II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
66%
Cornellà 2+ goals
29%
Cornellà 3+ goals
10%
Villarreal II 1+ goals
61%
Villarreal II 2+ goals
25%
Villarreal II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
55%
Villarreal II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.08 + Villarreal II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Villarreal II attack 1.19 + Cornellà defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cornellà scores more
38%
level
30%
Villarreal II scores more
31%

Cornellà at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Cornellà 0–0 Villarreal II

Cornellà and Villarreal II drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Nuevo Municipal de Cornella in Cornella de Llobregat.